Most developing countries are not considered green. The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and similar green indicators place them on the black end of the scale.

How objective is this assessment?

The 2016 EPI rates Finland, Iceland, Sweden and Denmark as the greenest countries. Of these, Sweden has the lowest CO2 and GHG emissions (Tables 1A and 1B below).

(*) Most non-Annex 1 parties to the Climate Convention are developing countries

In terms of CO2 emissions however, developing countries as a whole are much greener than the EPI greenest countries. Individually, 119 of the 152 analysed developing countries are greener than Sweden (Table 2).

Developing countries are also much greener than the EPI greenest countries in terms of GHG emissions. And again, 122 of the 152 analysed developing countries are greener than Sweden (Table 3).

But how sustainable is green, anyway?

For the sake of simplicity, let us assume that natural sinks uptake carbon at no environmental cost. Then sustainable carbon emissions are those that do not accumulate in the atmosphere. The sustainable threshold is 0.72 ton C (or 2.64 ton CO2) per capita/year (Table 4).

(**) non-LULUCF emissions, i.e. emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes

In terms of non-LULUCF CO2 emissions, 96 of the 152 analysed developing countries emit less than the sustainable threshold.

Conversely, many green countries, including the four greenest, emit more than the sustainable threshold.

Conclusions

• Green countries are not as green, and black countries are not as black, as green indicators tell.


• In many green countries, non-LULUCF CO2 emissions are not –and for many years have not been– sustainable, despite green technologies and environmental regulation.


• In many developing countries, these emissions are and always have been sustainable, but the sustainable threshold will eventually be exceeded as their economies grow.


• Carbon uptakes by natural sinks do have environmental consequences. Therefore, the above proposed sustainable threshold must be reduced much further (e.g. down to 0.10 ton CO2 per cap/year) if actual sustainability is to be achieved.


• Very few countries have truly sustainable emissions. DR Congo, Mali, Somalia, Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi and Niger would fall in this category at said 0.10 threshold (Table 2). The expense however is low quality of life.


• There are no truly green countries; those with truly sustainable emissions are rated very low by green indicators.

Sources:
EDGAR
OECD.Stat
CAIT
2016 Environmental Performance Index
Carbon Budget 2017
World POPClock Projection

Mhai Selph, June 2018

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